Fantasy Player's Edge

May 24, 2008


Roster Shuffle:

Here comes Clayton Kershaw. The word is that he'll pitch
on Sunday vs. the Cards. He's worth a priority waiver
claim with a caveat that he might only get 3 starts before
the Dodgers will make a decision on his immediate future
with the club. They'll look to restrict his innings this season,
with the question being how many and where he throws
them?

Joba Chamberlain is slated to pitch today vs. the Mariners.
With Mussina starting on short rest for Wang it should be
relatively easy to use Joba in long relief. They'd like him
to throw about 45 pitches. He's about a month out from
joining the rotation if everything falls into place.

John Smoltz will pitch today for Double A Mississippi.
He should be activated sometime next week if there
are no setbacks.

Eric Gagne was placed on the DL retroactive to the 21st
with tendonitis in his rotator cuff.

Fausto Carmona got torched and mercifully was pulled
in the 3rd inning with a strained left hip. He's day to
day but the Edge would be surprised if he took his
next turn.

King Felix Hernandez has been skipped due to tightness
in his calf. Although is doesn't sound overly serious it's
worth keeping an eye on in case you'll need to cover for
more than one start.

Yunel Escobar returned to action but inexplicably his
co-collisionist Ryan Church was again held out even
though he's pinch hit 2 nights in a row. Randolph is
trying to show a bit of compassion hoping that the
Mets brass will do the same for him.

Rafael Furcal had a setback and was not activated.
He's still suffering with lower back issues as he woke
up yesterday with soreness after working out for a
couple of days.

Victor Martinez sat out with a cut cuticle and is day
to day.

Jayson Werth could be DLed with an oblique strain

Chone Figgins blames the turf in Toronto for the general
soreness in his right leg. He's not headed back to the DL
just yet but may need to be used sparingly when the
Angels play on turf. He sat again last night.

Jorge Posada could be ready for a rehab assignment as
early as Monday.

Willy Taveras and Clint Barmes left last night's Rockies
game with knee injuries. Both will be evaluated today.

Chad Tracy is scheduled to be activated on Monday and
with Mark Reynolds struggling will get some PT at 3B.
Reynolds owners need to watch this closely as neither
guy is worth a roster spot as part of a platoon.

Eric Chavez is raking at Triple A but is unlikely to be
activated on Tuesday when he's eligible. Barring any
setbacks he'll be back soon enough should you need
depth at 3B.

From the "you've got to be kidding" file, Hank Blalock
was not activated yesterday as he is suffering from
carpal tunnel syndrome. Did he wake up with it??


Streamers: (tomorrow's probable starters available as free agents)

Use these players to gain advantage in wins and strikeouts.

Jose Contreras- has the right opponent, at the right time, in the
right place. 5-3, 3.36/1.27 with 40 k's in 59 innings vs. the Angels.

Mark Hendrickson- faces a soft opponent with an inexperienced
starter. 1-1, 3.09/1.31 over 35 frames against the Giants.


Spotties: (tomorrow's position players available as free agents)

Use these players to fill in for injured players and on off days.

Kevin Millar- Shields has no protection from this guy's onslaught.
11/24, 4 extras and 3 rbi.

Omar Vizquel- the one Giant who gives big Hendrickson a problem.
7/13, 5 mults, 2 steals and 0 k's.


Start/Sit: (today)

Guide to using bench players when matchups are favorable.

Raul Ibanez (start)- hits Mussina with impunity. 11/26, 5 extras,
1 jackaranda and 6 ribbies.

Shane Victorino (start)- getting this guy out is like pulling teeth
for Moehler. 5/8 with an extra base hit and 0 k's.


Guide to sit starters when matchups are unfavorable.

Normally sit these players in Roto formats only.

Lance Berkman (sit)- even the game's top hitters have tough
matchups on rare occasions. 3/17 with 5 k's vs. Myers.

Torii Hunter (sit)- this time the Hunter gets captured by the
game. 0/11 with 2 k's vs. Danks.


Studs and Duds: (a recap of yesterday's picks and pans)

Scott Olsen (stream)- L 3.1ip/5e/11w/2k

Shawn Estes (stream)- ND 6ip/2e/7w/5k

Luis Gonzalez (spot)- 0/4

Adam Kennedy (spot)- 0/5 (vs Lowe)

Xavier Nady (start)- 0/4

Aaron Rowand (start)-2/3, homer, 2 runs, 3 rbi

Johnny Damon (sit)- DNP

Torii Hunter (sit)-faces Danks today.


How To: (this section is devoted to the fundamentals of daily play)


Head To Head: Player's Edge(PE) vs. Opposition(OP):

Week 5: Saturday


Weekly Tot: R-H-RB-SB -BA/ W-SV-K ER-WH -SCORE

-------PE-20--4--25--2--.362/-4-4-42--4.22--1.39---7
-------OP-18--4--24--4--.284/-2-0-26--4.89--1.20---2

Offense: Lineups:

-----PE-----/----- OP

^B.Molina---------^Soto
^Teixeira---------^Morneau
^Roberts----------^Matsui
^Braun------------^Zimmerman
^Escobar----------- empty
^Griffey-----------^Holliday
^C. Young-------- ^McLouth
^Kemp------------^Quentin
Figgins------------^Sizemore
^Gomez------------C. Jackson
---------------------Hunter
---------------------Bruce
---------------------Tulowitzki (DL)


------PE------//-----OP
8/37-3-2-6-1 //9/32-5-2-10-0 (daily totals: H/AB,R,HR,RBI)

Pitching: Rotation-Closers

-----PE----/------OP

Harang------------F. Hernandez
Shields------------Carmona
^Weaver----------Cook
^Cain------------^Scherzer
S.Hill--------------Contreras
^F. Cordero-------Eveland
^Saito-------------Volquez
^Fuentes----------G. Olson
^Wood------------Saunders
Lilly---------------Smoltz-DL
Harden


-----PE--------//------OP
1W/1S, 9-2-10-12//1W/0S, 16.1-8-18-17 (day: W/S,IP,ER,WH,K)

Weekly Totals- Batting Avg. PE(55/152) - OP (38/134)
Weekly Totals- ERA (23/(49/9) - OP ERA (19/(35/9) -(er/(ip/9)
Weekly Totals- Whip (68/49) - OP WHIP (42/35) - (w+h/ip)
Weekly Starts(est/week to date) PE---4-----OP----2

^ -designates an active player on today's roster.

Daily Activity:

PE Glaus(drop)/Bergmann-Mon
OP Rasner(drop)/Jackson-Tues
PE Bergmann(drop)/Byrd-Tues
OP Jackson(drop)/Contreras-Tues
PE Byrd(drop)/Gorzelanny-Wed
PE Gorzelanny(drop)/Figgins-Thurs

Strategy: PE toyed with sitting all pitchers for the
remainder of this week's contest. Wins, Saves and
K's are solidly with PE as OP has only Contreras
left in the late game on Sunday. PE leads by 2 wins
and 16 k's with the wildcard for an OP win being
Scherzer who's pitching out of the bullpen. PE
would concede WHIP where OP has a significant
margin and force Contreras to throw at least 6
shutout innings to capture ERA. Currently ERA
sits at 4.22 vs. 4.89 for PE. If Contreras throws 6ip
with 0e then the OP era would be lowered to .417
and OP would gain the point. Here's the math. OP
has 35ip/19e. 6ip/0e would give OP 41ip/19e.
41/9= 4.55555. 19/4.55555= 4.17. OP could also
take the point with 8ip/1e which could be any
combination of Contreras/Scherzer innings pitched.
Contreras has been lights out and has a favorable
opponent with Mad Max probably available on
Sunday after a perfect inning of relief last night.
PE has no choice but to jeopardize ERA completely
by starting Cain and Weaver on the road vs. favorable
opponents and all 4 closers. This strategy will payoff
if the combined era of PE's staff is sub 4 on the day.
PE will also have Shields/Lilly available tomorrow.
PE will continue to sit Figgins.


Game Keys: OP offense and pitching was good enough
yesterday to keep many categories in play. Specifically,
Runs, RBI, Homers and ERA. PE currently controls 3
of these categories with Homers being tied which could
turn a 7-2 PE lead into a 6-4 disadvantage overnight.
OP had 10 RBI last night to draw within 1 while closing
the gap to 2 in Runs. The disconnect is that PE has 17
more hits on the week which speaks to the productivity
of the hits by both squads. ERA was discussed in detail
in the strategy section. Week 8 heads onto the river
with the contest outcome still very much in doubt.



Final Thoughts:

PE is in 3rd place, 5 games out of 1st and 1 game behind the
2nd place team heading into week 8.

The Player's Edge participates in many leagues but elected to
follow a team in a Public League to better approximate what might
be faced by a wide majority of players that use the Edge daily. This
team plays in a standard 5x5 scoring format and drafted 7th of 12
teams in a 21 round on-line live event in late March. We'll follow this
team throughout the entire 2008 fantasy campaign.


All Done!

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